Evidence over emotion.
Markets move in cycles. The model is designed to participate when evidence supports growth, shift toward broader market exposure when leadership changes, and move to defense when risk signals deteriorate.
The one-minute explanation.
“Instead of guessing what the market will do next, this model asks a consistent set of questions: Is growth leading? Is the broad market stronger? Or is the evidence telling us to play defense? Then it follows the answer with discipline.”
Three steps. One disciplined decision.
The technical work happens behind the scenes. The client-facing idea is simple.
Measure momentum
Compare which market exposure has stronger recent evidence.
Confirm trend strength
Check whether the trend is healthy enough to act on.
Allocate with discipline
Move to QQQ, SPY, or cash based on the rules — not headlines.
What the model can own.
Each allocation has a job. The model rotates based on the evidence available at the time of review.
QQQ = growth mode
Used when growth leadership and trend confirmation are favorable.
SPY = broad market mode
Used when broad market exposure shows stronger evidence.
Cash = defense mode
Used when risk signals do not support owning market exposure.
Historical Strategy Allocation
A growth strategy with a defensive playbook.
Participate in growth
Designed to stay invested when evidence favors market participation.
Reduce severe drawdowns
Designed to step away when risk conditions worsen.
Use discipline
Rules reduce the temptation to react emotionally.
Rebalance on evidence
Decisions are based on signals, not headlines or predictions.
Historical metrics at a glance.
These figures are historical/model outputs and should be discussed as illustrative, not guaranteed.
Drawdown Defense
Lower bars indicate better downside protection in the model period.
Growth Comparison
Growth of $100,000 from 2004–2025. SPY and QQQ use actual adjusted-close history; the Q Fund line represents the model backtest illustration.
What this strategy is — and what it is not.
This gives clients the right mental model before they focus on performance.
This is
- ✓ A rules-based model strategy
- ✓ A disciplined way to rotate risk exposure
- ✓ A process designed to reduce emotional decisions
- ✓ A framework for participating and defending
This is not
- ✕ A market prediction system
- ✕ A guarantee against losses
- ✕ A promise to always beat the market
- ✕ A replacement for personal planning
The questions clients usually ask next.
These are phrased for live meeting use: simple, balanced, and compliance-aware.
Can the model be wrong?
Why not just buy and hold?
Does moving to cash mean something failed?
How often can the model change?
Is this the whole plan?
Technical rules are available — but not the first thing clients see.
For clients who want the deeper mechanics, the signal logic is still here in expandable sections.
Momentum calculation
Relative momentum: Compare the total return of QQQ and SPY over a specified period.
Optimized momentum window: 9 months / 189 trading days.
RSI confirmation
- • Calculate RSI using a 14-day window.
- • RSI upper threshold: 75.
- • RSI lower threshold: 35.
MACD confirmation
- • Short window: 9 days.
- • Long window: 18 days.
- • Signal window: 7 days.
- • MACD above its signal line indicates a bullish confirmation.
Allocation rules
- • QQQ: QQQ momentum is stronger than SPY, positive, not overbought, and MACD confirms.
- • SPY: SPY momentum is stronger than QQQ, positive, not overbought, and MACD confirms.
- • Cash: Momentum is negative or indicators do not align.
- • Rebalance based on the model rules and available evidence.
Rules do not eliminate risk. They create discipline.
This is a model strategy. It is not a guarantee of performance. Past or hypothetical results do not predict future results. Any decision to use the strategy should be based on the client’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, liquidity needs, and overall financial plan.